Mid-size town district · about 554 students tested a year in grades 3–8 · 1,400 students in district-run schools (K–12)
−12.1
points vs. what its demographics predict
Based on its families’ demographics, Aspen 1 would be expected to rank #1 of 105 Colorado districts, with 64% of students meeting or exceeding expectations in English and 56% in math. It actually ranks #14, with 52% and 44%. That is 12.1 percentage points below what its demographics predict, which ranks it #93 of 105 on performance vs. demographics.
#93 of 105 statewide · likely #84–#100#46 of 49 mid-size districts#25 of 28 town districts#8 of 9 among its most similar districts
Where demographics would place it, and where it lands
Statewide rank, English and math combined
Hollow: predicted from demographics. Filled: actual results. #1 is the highest share of students meeting expectations.
Subject
Expected
Actual
Over/under (pts)
Rank: predicted → actual
Rank vs. demographics
English
64%
52%
−12.6 ±4.2
#1 → #17
#94
Math
56%
44%
−11.7 ±3.7
#1 → #14
#95
Met or exceeded expectations on CMAS, grades 3–8, 2024–2026 combined. District results include district-run neighborhood, choice and magnet schools, but not charter or online schools. ± is a 90% range for normal year-to-year swings.
Over time
Met or exceeded expectations, by year
Dashed: expected from demographics.
Growth
CDE median growth percentile, 2024–2026: how much students improved compared with students statewide who started at the same level. 50 is typical.
English growth
52
median growth percentile
Math growth
58
median growth percentile
Growth depends much less on family background than test scores do, so it is the closer measure of what schools add in a given year.
Compared with its most similar districts
Over/under, percentage points (English and math)
The eight districts closest on parents’ education, free/reduced lunch, English learners, special education and size. Blue: above prediction; red: below; gray: within normal swings. Lines: 90% range.
Who it serves
The measures behind the prediction
Bars: this district. Black tick: Colorado average across ranked districts, weighted by students.
Parents’ education: parents of public-school children (Census ACS 2019–2023, NCES tabulation). For context, not in the prediction: all adults with a bachelor’s degree+ 67%; median household income $97,015.
Its schools
Neighborhood schools
Compared with Colorado schools serving similar students (income and education of the area, free/reduced lunch, English learners, special education). Points are CMAS scale-score points vs. expected, 2024–2026.
Charter, choice, magnet, online and alternative schools don’t serve a neighborhood, so they aren’t compared with schools serving similar areas. Charter and online schools are also left out of the district results above.
The expected result comes from a statistical model fit across all ranked Colorado districts: parents’ education, free/reduced lunch, English learners and special education explain about 90% of the differences in district results. Over/under is what remains — the part the demographics don’t account for, which includes the schools themselves but also anything else those measures miss. Each district’s expected value is predicted from the other districts. Full method and caveats.